CPI

Consumer Price Index for all Income Households in Bicol Region: January 2018

PRICE SITUATION: YEAR-ON-YEAR
 
The Bicol Region’s inflation rate in January 2018 went up to 5.4 percent. Compared
to the 3.1 percent inflation rate in the same period last year, the January 2018 rate was
higher by 2.3 percentage points.
The upsurge was ascribed to the Inflation Rate by the Alcoholic Beverages and
Tobacco (from 6.2 percent to 23.6 percent). Likewise, the increase was also noted in almost
all of the Commodity/Service group; Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (from 5.0 percent

Consumer Price Index for all Income Households in Bicol Region: December 2017

PRICE SITUATION: YEAR-ON-YEAR
 
The Bicol Region’s inflation rate in December 2017 went down to 4.0 percent. Compared to the 3.2 percent inflation rate in the same period last year, the December 2017 rate was higher by 0.8 percentage points.
The decrement was mainly attributed to the Inflation Rate by the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages group (from 5.8 percent to 5.0 percent).

Technical Notes on the Seasonal Adjustment of CPI

I. INTRODUCTION

Consumer Price Index (CPI) provides a general measure of the changes in average retail prices of commodities bought by specific group of consumers in a given area and in a given period of time. It mainly measures the composite change in the retail prices of the various commodities over time.

II. SEASONALITY

The seasonal adjustment of a time series mainly refers to the isolation of seasonal fluctuations, leaving the basic trend of the observed series. Seasonal fluctuations can be due to composite effect of climates and institutional events which repeat more or less regularly each year. Specific factors that may affect the CPI include seasonality due to production cycles, demand due to school year or holidays, and practices such as increase in rental rates during the beginning of the year. After the removal of seasonal variations, the resulting series is referred to as the seasonally adjusted series or the deseasonalized series. By removing the effects of seasonality on the CPI series, analysis can be made on a month-on-month basis. Thus, seasonal adjustment allows comparisons over recent months and gives short-term trend movements for the series. In general, if seasonally adjusted CPI levels are lower than the unadjusted series, it means that seasonal factors push up prices relative to the expected trend.

III. SEASONALITY IN THE CPI

The over-all CPI is tabulated using six major commodity groups in the Philippines, Metro Manila (MM) and Areas Outside Metro Manila (AOMM). The six groups are: Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Clothing; Housing and Repairs; Fuel, Light and Water; Services; Miscellaneous. The last five groups listed comprise the non-food items. Initially, the CPI series for all items as well as the Food, Beverages and Tobacco (FBT), and non-food items for MM and AOMM were tested for the presence of seasonality assuming stability. In MM and AOMM, presence of stable seasonality were observed both for FBT and Non-food items. However, the CPI for all items indicated that there is no seasonality in the series mainly due to the exhibited opposite direction of peaks and troughs of the FBT and non-food items, thus, canceling out. Presence of stable seasonality though, was observed both for FBT and non-food items when analyzed separately. The current seasonally adjusted series are based on X11ARIMA88 built-in model (Multiplicative with log-transformation (0,1,1)(0,1,1) and Additive (0,1,1)(0,1,1)) fit to the 2001 data series.

Consumer Price Index for all Income Households in Bicol Region: July 2017

The Bicol Region’s inflation rate in July 2017 slipped at 5.0 percent. Compared to the 1.0 percent inflation rate in the same period last year, the July 2017 rate was higher by 4.0 percentage points.

The Transport Service group made a great impact on this month’s Inflation Rate situation (0.4 percent from 4.6 percent). Furnishings, Households Equipment and Routine Maintenance of the House group also went down (1.5 percent from 1.7 percent)

Consumer Price Index for all Income Households in Bicol Region: March 2017

The Bicol Region’s inflation rate in March 2017 skyrocketed at 4.4 percent from 3.9 percent in February 2017. Compared to the 0.1 percent inflation rate in the same period last year, the March 2017 rate was higher by 4.3 percentage point.

The sustained upsurge is credited on the following Commodity/Service groups, Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels (3.3 percent from 1.9 percent), Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (6.5 percent from 5.8 percent), Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (3.5 percent from 3.3 percent) and Communication (0.5 percent from 0.3 percent)

Transport Commodity/Service group went on a slumped down (-0.5 percent from 2.9 percent) and among other Commodity/Service groups on this trend are Clothing and Footwear (1.5 percent from 1.6 percent), Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance of the House (1.5 percent from 1.7 percent), Health (1.4 percent from 1.5 percent).

Meanwhile, Recreation and Culture went steady at 0.7 percent along with Education and Restaurants and Miscellaneous Goods and Services pegged at 0.5 percent and 2.9 percent respectively.

The Bicol Region’s Inflation Rate went up at 4.4 percent from 3.9 percent. The province of Masbate increased to an all-time high of 4.9 percent and the highest in the Region. Albay, the second highest pegged at 4.7 percent. Camarines Sur followed at 4.6 percent. Camarines Norte and Sorsogon tied at 3.8 percent Inflation Rate for the month, while Catanduanes plunged to 2.2 percent from last month’s 2.6 percent.

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