Headline Inflation

The province’s headline inflation or overall inflation decelerated to 2.7 percent in September 2024 from 4.0 percent in August 2024. This brings the provincial average inflation from January to September 2024 to 4.5 percent. In September 2023, inflation rate was higher at 5.5 percent.

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The downtrend in the overall inflation in September 2024 was primarily influenced by the decrease in the index of Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages at 2.6 percent during the month from 5.4 percent in August 2024. Also contributing to the downtrend were the slower annual increases in the indices of Transport with -0.4 percent in September 2024 from 1.9 percent in August 2024.

Moreover, lower inflation rates during the month were also noted in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month:

1. a. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, 3.0 percent from3.3 percent;

2. b.Clothing and Footwear, 7.8 percent from 7.9 percent; 

3. c. Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance, 3.8 percent from 4.1 percent;

             d. Recreation, Sport and Culture, 5.2 percent from 5.4 percent; and

             e. Restaurant and Accommodation Services, 2.9 percent from 3.3 percent.

In contrast, the following commodity groups registered higher inflation rates during the month:

             a. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, 0.7 percent from 0.4 percent; 

             b. Health, 7.7 percent from 5.8 percent;

             c. Information and Communication, 0.3 percent from 0.1 percent; and

             d. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 6.6 percent from 6.5 percent.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s annual rates. (Table 3)

Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the September 2024 overall inflation were the following:

 a. Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 46.7 percent share or 1.3 percentage points;

b. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services with 11.8 percent share or 0.3 percentage point; and

           c. Clothing and Footwear with 10.8 percent share or 0.3 percentage point

Food Inflation

Food inflation at the provincial level decrease to 2.7 percent in September 2024 from 5.7 percent in August 2024. In September 2023, food inflation was higher at 9.4 percent.

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of Food Inflation

The deceleration of food inflation in September 2024 was mainly brought about by the year-on-year decrease in Rice index at 10.7 percent in September 2024 from 16.6 percent in the previous month. The index of Meat and Other Parts of Slaughtered Land Animals also contributed to the downtrend with an inflation rate of 3.6 percent during the month from 7.1 percent in August 2024.

Meanwhile, faster annual increase was noted in the indices of the following:

1. a. Ready-Made Food and Other Food Products Not Elsewhere Classfied at 5.6 percent from 6.2 percent;

2. b. Fruits and Nuts, 0.8 percent from 3.6 percent; and

3. c. Flour, Bread and Other Bakery Products, Pasta Products, and Other Cereals at 0.8 percent from 0.9 percent.

On the contrary, an increase in the index of Fish and Other Seafood was noted at 0.2 percent in September 2024 from -0.9 in August 2024.

A faster annual decrease in September 2024 were observed in the indices of oils and fats with -0.9 percent during the month from -0.8 percent in previous month, vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses with -12.5 percent during the month from -4.1 percent in previous month and sugar, confectionary and desserts with -9.6 percent during the month from -7.1 percent from the previous month

On the other hand, corn commodity retain its indices during the month.

Main contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 44.7 percent or 1.2 percentage points to the overall inflation in September 2024. 

The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

1.       Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with a share of 39.5 percent or 1.1 percentage points; 

2.       Milk, other dairy products and eggs with a share of 11.4 percent or 0.3 percentage point; and

3.       Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with a share of 8.7 percent or 0.2 percentage point.