Headline Inflation

The province’s headline inflation or overall inflation decelerated to 4.0 percent in August 2024 from 5.6 percent in July 2024. This brings the provincial average inflation from January to August 2024 to 4.8 percent. In August 2023, inflation rate was higher at 4.7 percent.

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The downtrend in the overall inflation in August 2024 was primarily influenced by the decrease in the index of Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages at 5.4 percent during the month from 7.9 percent in July 2024. Also contributing to the uptrend were the slower annual increases in the indices of Transport with 1.9 percent in August 2024 from 4.9 percent in July 2024, and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels with 0.4 percent in August 2024 from 1.2 percent inflation in the previous month.

Moreover, lower inflation rates during the month were also noted in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month:

    a. Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance, 4.1 percent from 4.7 percent; 
    b. Information and Communication, 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent; 
    c. Education Services, 0.3 percent from 1.0 percent; 
    d. Restaurant and Accommodation Services, 3.3 percent from 4.9 percent; and 
    e. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 6.5 percent from 6.6 percent.

In contrast, the following commodity groups registered higher inflation rates during the month:

    a. Clothing and Footwear, 7.9 percent from 6.2 percent; and 
    b. Recreation, Sport and Culture, 5.4 percent from 4.1 percent.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s annual rates. (Table 3) 

Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the August 2024 overall inflation were the following:

    a. Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 63.0 percent share or 5.4 percentage points; 
    b. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services with 7.6 percent share or 6.5 percentage point; and 
    c. Clothing and Footwear with 7.1 percent share or 7.9 percentage point

Food Inflation

Food inflation at the provincial level decrease to 5.7 percent in August 2024 from 8.4 percent in July 2024. In August 2023, food inflation was higher at 7.6 percent.

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of Food Inflation

The deceleration of food inflation in August 2024 was mainly brought about by the year-on-year decrease in Rice index at 16.6 percent in August 2024 from 31.3 percent in the previous month. The index of Ready-Made Food and Other Food Products Not Elsewhere Classified also contributed to the downtrend with an inflation rate of 6.2 percent during the month from 6.3 percent in July 2024. 

Meanwhile, faster annual increase was noted in the indices of the following:

    a. Meat and Other Parts of Slaughtered Land Animals at 7.1 percent from 5.1 percent; 
    b. Milk, Other Dairy products and Eggs at 9.2 percent in August 2024 from 7.3 percent; 
    c. Fruits and Nuts at 3.6 percent from 0.9 percent; and 
    d. Flour, Bread and Other Bakery Products, Pasta Products, and Other Cereals at 0.9 percent from 0.1 percent.

A decline in the index of Fish and Other Seafood was noted at -0.9 percent in August 2024 from 0.5 in July 2024 On the contrary, a slower annual decline were observed in the indices of the following food groups:

    a. Corn, -28.6 percent from -33.3 percent; 
    b. Oils and Fats, -0.8 percent from -2.3 percent.

A faster annual decrease in August 2024 were observed in the indices of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses with -2.7 percent during the month from -1.4 percent in previous month, and sugar, confectionary and desserts with -7.8 percent during the month from -6.2 percent from the previous month

Main contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 61.9 percent or 2.5 percentage points to the overall inflation in August 2024.  

The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

    a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with a share of 43.7 percent or 1.8 percentage points;  
    b. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with a share of 12.4 percent or 0.5 percentage point; and 
    c. Milk, other dairy products and eggs with a share of 7.3 percent or 0.3 percentage point.