Headline Inflation

The province’s headline inflation or overall inflation increased to 3.2 percent in October 2024 from 2.7 percent in September 2024. This brings the provincial average inflation from January to October 2024 to 4.4 percent. In October 2023, inflation rate was higher at 4.6 percent.

Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The uptrend in the overall inflation in October 2024 was primarily influenced by the faster annual increment in the index of food and non-alcoholic beverages at 3.3 percent during the month from 2.6 percent in September 2024. Also contributing to the uptrend in the indices of transport with a higher year-on-year increase of 1.1 percent in October 2024 from -0.4 percent in September 2024.

Moreover, higher inflation rates during the month were also noted in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month:

1. a. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, 3.6 percent from 3.3 percent;

2.       Clothing and Footwear, 9.2 percent from 7.8 percent;

3.              c. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, 1.2 percent from 0.7 percent; 

4. d. Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance, 3.9 percent from 3.8 percent;

5.       Health, 9.3 percent from 7.7 percent;

6.       Information and Communication, 0.5 percent from 0.3 percent; and

7.       Recreation, Sport and Culture, 6.0 percent from 5.2 percent.

In contrast, the following commodity groups registered higher inflation rates during the month:

1.       Restaurant and Accommodation Services, 2.6 percent from 3.0 percent; and

2.       Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 5.8 percent from 6.6 percent.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s annual rates. (Table 3)

Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the October 2024 overall inflation were the following:

 a. Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 48.3 percent share or 1.5 percentage points;

b. Clothing and Footwear with 10.4 percent share or 0.3 percentage point; and

c. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services with 8.5 percent share or 0.3 percentage point.

Food Inflation

Food inflation at the provincial level increased to 3.3 percent in October 2024 from 2.7 percent in September 2024. In October 2023, food inflation was higher at 7.2 percent.

Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of Food Inflation

The acceleration of food inflation in October 2024 was mainly brought about by the year-on-year increase in rice index at 12.6 percent in October 2024 from 10.7 percent in the previous month. The index of fish and other seafood also contributed to the uptrend with an inflation rate of 3.3 percent during the month from 0.2 percent in September 2024.

Meanwhile, slower annual increase was noted in the indices of the following:

1. a. Flour, Bread and Other Bakery Products, Pasta Products, and Other Cereals at 0.5 percent from 0.8 percent.

2.       Meat and other parts of slaughtered animals, 3.6 percent from 3.2 percent;

3. c. Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 6.7 percent from 10.4 percent;

4. d. Fruits and nuts, 0.4 percent from 0.8 percent; and

5. e. Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c., 5.4 percent from 5.8 percent.

On the contrary, an increase in the index of oils and fats was noted at 3.1 percent in October 2024 from -0.9 in September 2024 and corn from -28.6 percent in September 2024 to 4.8 percent in October 2024.

A faster annual decrease in October 2024 was observed in the indices of sugar, confectionary and desserts with -11.8 percent during the month from -10.0 percent in previous month while a slower annual decrease was observed in the indices of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses with -13.3 percent during the month from -14.6 percent in previous month. 

Main contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 44.7 percent or 1.4 percentage points to the overall inflation in October 2024. 

The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

1.     Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with a share of 84.3 percent or 2.8 percentage points; 

2.      Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with a share of 14.3 percent or 0.3 percentage point; and

3.       Fish and other seafood with a share of 13.7 percent or 0.5 percentage point.