Overall Inflation

The region’s inflation rate for the bottom 30%   income   households   slowed   down    to 1.2 percent in March 2025 from 2.0 percent in February 2025. In March 2024, the inflation rate was posted at 5.4 percent.

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Overall Inflation

The downtrend in the overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households in February 2025 was primarily influenced by a year-on-year drop in the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 0.1 percent during the month from 1.5 percent in the previous month, and transport at 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent in the previous month. Also contributing to the downward trend was the slower year-on-year increase in alcoholic beverages and tobacco at 2.7 percent during the month from 3.1 percent in February 2025.

Moreover, lower annual rates were noted in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month:

a.    Clothing and Footwear, 3.7 percent from 4.0 percent; 
b.    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent; 
c.    Recreation, sport and culture, 7.3 percent from 7.7 percent; and
d.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 3.1 percent from                     3.3 percent.

In contrast, the following commodity groups registered higher annual growth rates during the month:

a.    Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 4.2 percent from 2.9 percent; 
b.    Health, 2.1 percent from 1.9 percent; and
c.    Restaurants and accommodation services, 3.4 percent from 2.2 percent.

The indices of information and communication, education services, and financial services retained their respective previous month’s inflation rates in March 2025.

Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the February 2025 overall inflation were the following:

a.    Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels with 45.1 percent share or 0.5 percentage point;
b.    Restaurants and accommodation services with 17.1 percent share or 0.2 percentage point; and
c.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services with 11.2 percent share or 0.1 percentage point.

Food Inflation

Food inflation at the regional level decreased to 0.5 percent in March 2025 from 1.3 percent in the previous month. In March 2024, food inflation was higher at 10.0 percent.

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of Food Inflation

The deceleration of food inflation in March 2025 was primarily brought about by faster year-on-year decrease in the index of rice at 12.8 percent during the month from -7.7 percent in February 2025. Also contributing to the downward trend was the slower annual increase in the indices of meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals at 12.1 percent from 14.3 percent in February 2025 and milk, other dairy products and eggs at 0.8 percent during the month from 1.4 percent in the previous month.

Slower annual increments were also noted in the indices of the following food groups: 
a.    Flour, bread and other dairy products, 4.0 percent from 4.1 percent; and
b.    Ready-made food and other food products, 3.6 percent from 4.4 percent.

In contrast, higher annual increases were observed were noted in the following food groups:
a.    Corn, 8.5 percent from 7.6 percent;
b.    Fish and other seafood, 3.6 percent from 2.0 percent; 
c.    Fruit and nuts, 6.8 percent from 5.8 percent; and
d.    Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, 16.9 percent from     13.8 percent.

An annual increase was noted in the index of oils and fats at 0.1 percent from an annual decline of 1.3 percent in the previous month. Moreover, slower annual decline was observed in the index of sugar, confectionery and desserts at 1.7 percent from 3.6 percent in February 2025.

Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared -29.9 percent or -0.4 percentage point to the overall inflation in March 2025. The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a.    Rice, with a share of 958.1 percent or -4.8 percentage points;  
b.    Sugar, confectionery and desserts, with a share of 11.2 percent or -0.1 percentage point; and
c.    Oils and fats, with a share of -0.2 percent or 0.0 percentage point.

DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS

Consumer Price Index - a statistical measure of the change in average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services bought by a specific group of consumers in a given area in a given period of time.

Purchasing Power of the Currency or Peso (PPP) - a measure of the volume of goods and services which the currency can buy at any given period relative to that which it could purchase during the base year.  It is computed as the reciprocal of the CPI for the period under review multiplied by 100.

Market Basket - the total number of goods and services in constant amounts and qualities which are samples of the goods and services available in the market and included in the construction of the index.  CPI market basket was selected to represent the composite price behavior of all goods and services purchased by consumers. Composition of the 2012 market basket was determined based on the results of the 2018 update of the 2012 basket. Provinces and selected cities had own market baskets.  

Base Year - it identifies the base period with which the index relates. It is a period of time chosen as reference on which a price index is computed. The index for the base year is 100.

Retail Price - the actual price at which retailers sell a commodity on spot or earliest delivery, usually in small quantities for consumption and not for resale. It is confined to transactions on cash basis in the free market and excludes black-market prices and prices of commodities that are on sale as in summer sales, anniversary sales, Christmas sales, etc.

Percent Change - the percent point change expressed as percent of the index of the earliest date.

Inflation Rate - the annual rate of change or the year-on-year change of the CPI.  Inflation is interpreted in terms of declining purchasing power of money.

Note to Users:

    The monthly Consumer Price Index is computed based on the average retail prices of goods and services collected during the first week and mid-month of the reference month.