Headline Inflation

Bicol Region’s headline inflation or overall inflation further decelerated to 2.9 percent in February 2024. This brings the regional average inflation from January 2024 to February 2024 at 3.0 percent. In February 2023, inflation rate was higher at 8.8 percent.

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The downtrend in the overall inflation in February 2024 was primarily influenced by the faster annual decrease of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at -6.7 percent in February 2024 from -3.7 percent in the previous month. Also contributing to the downtrend was restaurants and accommodation services which further slowed down to 4.5 percent during the month from 5.8 percent in January 2024.

Lower inflation rates were also noted in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month:

    a. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 10.9 percent from 11.1 percent;
    b. Clothing and footwear, 4.1 percent from 4.5 percent;           
    c. Health, 1.8 percent from 2.2 percent; and
    d. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.6 percent from 2.8 percent.

In contrast, three commodity groups registered higher inflation rates during the month:

    a. Food and non-alcoholic beverages, 6.2 percent from 5.6 percent;
    b. Transport, 3.0 percent from 0.3 percent; and
    c. Information and communication, 4.0 percent from 3.9 percent.

Meanwhile, the indices of the following commodity groups retained its previous month’s annual rate:

    a. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 2.9 percent;
    b. Recreation, sport and culture, 4.4 percent;
    c. Education services, 3.2 percent; and
    d. Financial services, 0.0 percent.

Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the February 2024 overall inflation were the following:

    a. Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 95.7 percent share and 2.8 percentage points;
    b. Restaurants and Accommodation services with 9.8 percent share and 0.3 percentage point; and
    c. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 7.9 percent share and 0.2 percentage point.  

Food Inflation

Food inflation at the regional level rose to 6.4 percent in February 2024 from 5.8 percent in the previous month. In February 2023, food inflation was higher at 10.0 percent.

Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of Food Inflation

The acceleration of food inflation in February 2024 was mainly brought about by the slower year-on-year decrease in vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at -14.6 percent during the month from -23.9 percent annual decline in the previous month. In addition, meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals index recorded a 0.4 percent annual increment during the month from an annual decline of -0.7 percent in January 2024.

In addition, higher inflation rates were noted in the indices of fruits and nuts which registered a faster annual increment of 9.0 percent in February 2024 from 8.0 percent in January 2024 and ready-made food and other food products, nec. at 5.4 percent from 5.0 percent in the previous month.

On the contrary, compared with their previous month’s inflation rates, faster year-on-year growth decreases were observed in the indices of the following:

    a. Corn, 10.4 percent from 10.8 percent;
    b. Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 4.3 percent from 4.5 percent;
    c. Fish and other seafood, -3.7 percent from -0.1 percent;
    d. Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 3.1 percent from 5.1 percent;
    e. Oils and fats, -9.0 percent from -8.9 percent; and
    f. Sugar, confectionery and desserts, -4.4 percent from -3.5 percent.

Meanwhile, rice inflation retained its previous month’s rate at 34.0 percent

Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 94.0 percent or 2.7 percentage points to the overall inflation in February 2024. The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:
    a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, with 111.8 percent share and 7.2 percentage points;
    b. Fruits and nuts with 5.3 percent share and 0.3 percentage point; and
    c. Milk, other dairy products and eggs with 3.1 percent share and 0.2 percentage point.

Table 5. Consumer Price Index and Monthly Percent Change For All Income Households by Commodity Group: January 2024 and February 2024

(2018=100)

DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS

Consumer Price Index - a statistical measure of the change in average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services bought by a specific group of consumers in a given area in a given period of time.

Purchasing Power of the Currency or Peso (PPP) - a measure of the volume of goods and services which the currency can buy at any given period relative to that which it could purchase during the base year.  It is computed as the reciprocal of the CPI for the period under review multiplied by 100.

Market Basket - the total number of goods and services in constant amounts and qualities which are samples of the goods and services available in the market and included in the construction of the index.  CPI market basket was selected to represent the composite price behavior of all goods and services purchased by consumers. Composition of the 2012 market basket was determined based on the results of the 2018 update of the 2012 basket. Provinces and selected cities had own market baskets.  

Base Year - it identifies the base period with which the index relates. It is a period of time chosen as reference on which a price index is computed. The index for the base year is 100.

Retail Price - the actual price at which retailers sell a commodity on spot or earliest delivery, usually in small quantities for consumption and not for resale. It is confined to transactions on cash basis in the free market and excludes black-market prices and prices of commodities that are on sale as in summer sales, anniversary sales, Christmas sales, etc.

Percent Change - the percent point change expressed as percent of the index of the earliest date.

Inflation Rate - the annual rate of change or the year-on-year change of the CPI.  Inflation is interpreted in terms of declining purchasing power of money.

Note to Users:

    The monthly Consumer Price Index is computed based on the average retail prices of goods and services collected during the first week and mid-month of the reference month.